April 2 Only: The April 2nd tariffs alone constitute an increase in the average effective tariff rate of 11 ½ percentage points. That implies a rise in consumer prices of roughly 1.3% in the short-run, assuming no policy reaction from the Federal Reserve.5 This is equivalent to a loss of purchasing power of $2,100 per household on average in 2024 dollars.
All 2025 Tariffs: The April 2nd tariffs in tandem with the China, Canada, Mexico, automobile, and steel & aluminum tariffs already in effect (and the announced retaliation from other countries) imply an increase in the average effective tariff rate of just under 20 percentage points.6 That raises consumer prices by 2.3% all told in the short-run, assuming no policy reaction from the Federal Reserve, a loss of purchasing power of $3,800 per household on average in 2024 dollars.
GDP Effects: The April 2nd tariffs alone reduce the size of the US economy in both the short- and the long-run. US real GDP growth is -0.5pp lower in calendar year 2025 and -0.1pp lower in calendar year 2026. After 2026, the level of GDP begins to recover modestly as production and supply chains reoptimize. But in the long-run, US output is still -0.4% lower from the April 2 announcement. That's the equivalent of the US economy being permanently smaller by $100 billion annually in 2024 dollars. Real exports specifically are lower in the long-run by -10% under the April 2nd policy.
Accounting for all the 2025 US tariffs and retaliation implemented to date, real GDP growth is -0.9pp lower in calendar year 2025 and -0.1pp lower in calendar year 2026, while the level of real GDP is persistently -0.6% smaller in the long run, the equivalent of $160 billion 2024$ annually, while exports are -18.1% lower.

Inflation & Consumer Costs: Tariffs increased the average annual cost per household by an estimated $831 to $1,000 in 2025. Apparel prices rose significantly, with clothing costs increasing 17% under 2025 policies. Apparel prices rose significantly, with clothing costs increasing 17% under 2025 policies.
Reduced Economic Growth (GDP): Studies indicate Trump's 2025 tariff escalation likely lowered U.S. real GDP growth by 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points, reducing long-run economic output by over $100 billion annually.
Manufacturing and Employment Loss: Despite goals to boost domestic manufacturing, the policies caused manufacturing employment to decline, with reports suggesting 98,000 jobs were lost in the first 12 months of the 2025 actions. Many manufacturers reported running at a loss due to higher input costs.
Retaliation & Export Loss: Retaliatory tariffs from countries like China resulted in annual losses exceeding $10 billion for American farmers, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Increased Uncertainty: The rapid, extensive implementation of tariffs, particularly under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (later deemed unauthorized by the Supreme Court in February 2026), created high economic uncertainty, disrupting business investment and supply chains.

The intersection of Trump's foreign policy and energy decisions has triggered significant financial corruption concerns.
Predictive Trading: In the spring of 2026, massive, highly sophisticated oil futures bets worth up to $1.7 billion changed hands on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Timing Anomaly: These trades occurred just hours before major, unannounced updates regarding Trump's war in Iran, which spiked oil prices and utility bills.
Internal Warnings: The timeline revealed that these trades happened shortly after internal White House memos warned staff against abusing classified information. Critics like Senator Chris Murphy and economist Paul Krugman have cited this as evidence of a "predation economy," where insider trading and political connections dictate market winners.

The Iran War Effect: The administration's conflict with Iran is cited as a major driver of the 2026 fuel price increases, with one month's surge costing drivers an estimated additional $9.4 billion.
Regional Surges: In some areas, such as California, gas prices have surpassed $5 per gallon, with critics arguing the federal administration has turned a blind eye to the cost of "corruption".
Industry Collusion Allegations: Previous investigations by the FTC in 2024 revealed oil executives colluding with OPEC to maintain high prices, a trend critics argue has continued under the current political climate.

Reported terms of Trump’s Iran deal would confirm the war as an epochal failure

Following his return to the White House, Trump implemented an energy agenda heavily tailored to his fossil fuel donors, who contributed nearly $100 million to his campaign and affiliated PACs.
Tax Incentives: His signature budget rolled back $18 billion in green energy subsidies while cementing lucrative tax breaks for fossil fuel companies.
Regulatory Rollbacks: Within his first few months back in office, the administration executed over 145 separate actions to gut environmental protections. This included rolling back the EPA's endangerment finding and shifting $2 billion in public funds to incentivize utilities to ditch offshore wind in favor of fossil fuels.
FTC Intervention: The administration's Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reopened and vacated prior antitrust consent orders. This reversed previous restrictions that barred the CEOs of Pioneer (ExxonMobil) and Hess (Chevron) from joining newly merged boards over past collusion allegations with OPEC to artificially inflate consumer prices.

The administration's defense of the industry has triggered a multi-front legal and political war.
Federal Liability Shielding: Following an executive order to protect fossil fuel interests, the Department of Justice filed federal lawsuits against states like Vermont and New York to halt "climate superfund" laws. These laws were designed to make oil majors pay for climate-driven infrastructure damage.
Democratic Resistance: Congressional Democrats have pushed forward with off-the-books "shadow" hearings to detail what they call systemic industry deception and political collusion.
State Subpoenas: Blocked at the federal level, lawmakers and attorneys general in several states are utilizing state-level legislative powers to issue subpoenas, targeting internal communications between corporate energy executives and administration officials.

One of the sharpest criticisms is that the administration's tariff agenda contradicts its own goals. For example, Trump has made AI leadership a priority, yet imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper — a critical input for AI data center energy infrastructure — and threatened 25%+ tariffs on advanced semiconductors. Since the average copper mine takes nearly 17 years to come online, the near-term costs of these tariffs are concrete while the benefits of re-shoring are distant and uncertain.

A nonpartisan assessment is that tariffs can be useful in targeted cases — such as safeguarding national security industries — but a blanket, universal application tends to cause more problems than it solves. The 2025 tariff expansion caused quantifiable economic disruptions in the first quarter, including a GDP decline and increased consumer prices. Almost every industry, from agriculture to tech, faced cost pressures or retaliatory trade barriers.

Harvard's Stephen Walt argued that taxing the economies of allies while simultaneously asking them to spend more on defense is self-defeating — a clear contradiction in the administration's foreign and trade policy.

Markets largely shrugged off many tariff threats after repeated rollbacks, with analysts suggesting Trump's threats had lost credibility. The administration announced only three trade agreements by July 2025 despite months of negotiations. Many specific tariff threats — including the promised "External Revenue Service" announced in the inaugural address — had not been established by year's end.

The administration used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs — something that had never been done before with that law. At least seven federal court cases challenged Trump's authority to do so, with plaintiffs arguing it constituted an overextension of executive power into areas traditionally reserved for Congress.

In March 2025, the US notified the WTO that it would suspend contributions to its budget indefinitely. The US had been set to provide about 11% of the WTO's budget, and the US has de facto paralyzed the organization since 2019 by blocking appointments to its Appellate Body.

Studies showed that tariffs increased expenses and reduced earnings for companies, and raised costs for households. Corporate bankruptcies increased to their highest level since 2010. The promised growth in manufacturing jobs was not realized.

According to a Quinnipiac poll, only 39% approved of Trump's handling of trade, and 7-in-10 Americans believed his tariff policies would hurt the economy in the short term.

In the final year of Trump's presidency, more than 450,000 Americans died from COVID-19, and life expectancy fell by 1.13 years — the biggest decrease since World War II. The Lancet Commission estimated that about 40% of U.S. COVID-19 deaths could have been avoided. Trump suppressed scientific data, delayed testing, mocked and blocked mask-wearing, and convened mass gatherings where social distancing was impossible.

A Lancet report found that Trump rolled back 84 vital regulations covering everything from toxins in water to the way scientific research is used by the federal government. The resulting increase in airborne particulate matter was the primary cause of an estimated 22,000 excess deaths from environmental and workplace hazards in 2019 alone.

Trump tried, but failed, to repeal the ACA, then made every effort to undermine it, pushing up the number of uninsured Americans by 2.3 million. The Lancet Commission estimated 461,000 deaths per year would have been averted in 2018 if U.S. mortality rates had matched those of comparable wealthy nations.

During his first term, Trump vastly expanded the global gag rule to cover all U.S. global health funding — encompassing 20 times the funding as family planning alone — cutting off reproductive and maternal health services for millions.

Trump pulled the U.S. out of the World Health Organization and the Paris climate accord despite mounting threats from COVID-19 and global warming.

Cuts under the Trump administration gutted the PEPFAR program. Researchers from the HIV Modelling Consortium estimated 70,000 people have already died due to the cutbacks. Longer-term projections published in The Lancet HIV suggest the anticipated international aid reductions may lead to 4.4 to 10.8 million additional new HIV infections by 2030 and between 770,000 and 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults by 2030.

Researchers project 851 cases of post-measles neurological complications, 170,200 hospitalizations, and 2,550 deaths under the status quo reduction in vaccination rates. A 10% further reduction in MMR vaccination could lead to 11.1 million new measles cases. More substantial decreases risk pushing diseases like rubella and polio back to endemicity.

Researchers at Yale University and the University of Pennsylvania estimate that the "One Big Beautiful Bill," with its cuts to healthcare, housing, and the social safety net, could kill more than 51,000 Americans annually.

The detained population surged nearly 50% under the second Trump administration, pushing facilities beyond capacity and fueling deaths linked to overcrowding, medical neglect, and mental distress. At least three people died by suicide after being denied timely mental health care. The American Immigration Council reported 23 people had died in ICE custody in one fiscal year — the deadliest year for detainees since 2004.

A ProPublica and Guardian analysis found that extra greenhouse gases released in the next decade as a result of Trump's second-term policies are expected to lead to as many as 1.3 million more temperature-related deaths worldwide in the 80 years after 2035.

A report from the American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine projects that the administration's rollback of environmental regulations, vaccination requirements, and workplace safety rules will produce millions of additional deaths from respiratory illness in the coming years.

By one calculation, unless PEPFAR funding is replaced, more than 600,000 additional South Africans will die from AIDS by 2034.

The Department of Education terminated more than $600 million in grants to institutions and nonprofits training teachers on topics including Critical Race Theory, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion, anti-racism, and instruction on white privilege and white supremacy. Amnesty International characterized the forced closures of DEI programs and threats to defund universities that embrace racial equity as a blatant attack on racial justice.

Trump sought to shutter the Minority Business Development Agency and gut its efforts completely — seeking to fire nearly 100% of its staff, terminating grants, and closing local business centers that helped Black entrepreneurs across the country. Though a federal court issued a preliminary injunction, the administration and its allies continued to undermine the agency.

The Trump administration reversed course on clean energy funding access and fast-tracked dangerous pipelines and projects that predominantly go through rural, low-wealth, and communities of color — many through Black communities in the Gulf South already overburdened with air pollution, cancer, and other diseases caused by the fossil fuel industry.

Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem partially vacated the notice that had extended and re-designated Haiti for Temporary Protected Status, leaving hundreds of thousands of Haitians vulnerable to deportation.

Mass deportations, enforced disappearances under the Alien Enemies Act, family separations, and harsh restrictions on the right to asylum have violated international law according to Amnesty International, with actions tearing apart predominantly Latino and Black immigrant communities.

The Trump administration systematically attacked legal mechanisms such as disparate impact — a tool Black Americans and others use to challenge discriminatory policies — while also rolling back DEI policies and increasing pressure on Historically Black Colleges and Universities that have consistently propelled Black graduates into the middle class.

Critics argue Trump spent years disputing the 2020 election outcome to pave the way for policies that further suppress and disenfranchise his political opponents, particularly Black voters and voters of color, who make up an increasingly large percentage of the electorate.

On his first day of his second term, Trump signed an executive order creating DOGE, seeking "full and prompt access to all unclassified agency records, software systems and IT systems" from across the spectrum of government agencies. Privacy advocates were immediately alarmed. Al Jazeera DOGE gained access to data including addresses, tax filings, family members, and medical records for everyone from average citizens receiving Social Security benefits, to millions of current and past federal employees, applicants for government jobs, and judges. Lawyers representing the Trump administration failed to explain in court filings why DOGE needs the data.

In April 2025, ICE inked a deal with the IRS to exchange personal information, including the names and addresses of taxpayers — turning private taxpayer data into a tool to carry out deportations. A federal court later paused this agreement.

New data-sharing guidance required states to turn over personal information about tens of millions of SNAP recipients. The administration also sought Medicaid data from states, with critics arguing it was integrating critical social assistance systems into "a machinery for hunting immigrants."

Court filings revealed that DOGE employees secretly conferred with a political advocacy group about matching Social Security data with state voter rolls to "find evidence of voter fraud and to overturn election results in certain States." Two SSA DOGE employees were referred to a federal watchdog to determine whether they violated the Hatch Act, which bars government employees from using their jobs for political activity.

The Trump administration dismissed the chairperson and two Democratic members of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board (PCLOB) — an independent body responsible for ensuring transparency and accountability in U.S. surveillance practices — threatening its ability to function. The PCLOB plays a key role in the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework, which governs transatlantic data transfers.

The ACLU warned that "what makes the Trump administration's approach so chilling is that they are seeking to collect and use data across federal agencies in ways that are unprecedented." Critics noted that if the centralized systems were accessed by hackers, they would prove a trove of information to commit fraud or blackmail, and that the systems could be abused to track women crossing state lines for abortions, target political critics, or enable stalking.

During his first term, Trump directed the review of 27 monuments, which led to the downsizing of two sites in Utah — Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante — the largest reversal of U.S. land monument protections in history, eliminating 85 percent of Bears Ears and nearly half of Grand Staircase-Escalante. While those lands were unprotected, numerous mining claims were staked and more than 100,000 acres of Bears Ears were leased for oil and gas drilling.

The Trump administration rewrote the 2015 Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule, eliminating protections for more than half of America's wetlands, along with many rivers and streams previously protected under the Clean Water Act — threatening drinking water for millions and national park waterways across the country. The revised rule paved the way for more pollution from mining, manufacturing, and large farms to flow into waterways.

During the first term, the administration rolled back the National Environmental Policy Act, which required government agencies to consider environmental and public health impacts before permitting projects on federal lands and gave the public a voice in the process.

Trump opened the 1.5-million-acre coastal plain of ANWR — long considered the crown jewel of the Arctic — to oil and gas leasing, overturning decades of bipartisan protection of one of the world's most pristine wilderness areas.

The Trump administration declared in May 2025 that the president can open up land for private sector exploitation by revoking national monument designations established by former presidents. The Justice Department issued a 50-page opinion giving Trump authority to rescind monument designations that fly in the face of established law. Specific monuments in the crosshairs include Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante in Utah, Baaj Nwaavjo I'tah Kukveni (the Grand Canyon area monument), Chaco Canyon in New Mexico, the Boundary Waters in Minnesota, and Northeast Canyons and Seamounts Marine National Monument off the northeastern coast.

The Grand Canyon area monument has a long history of conflict, as decades of uranium mining have contributed to kidney failure and cancer among Navajo communities. Mining there poses a significant risk of water contamination to a region whose waters support 40 million people. Two out of three Arizonans across the political spectrum support a permanent ban on new uranium mining around the Grand Canyon.

On Trump's first day in office, he signed the "Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential" executive order, implementing nearly every part of Project 2025's plan for Alaska. This included reversing the Western Arctic Special Areas Rule, opening more than 13 million acres of intact landscape to oil and gas leasing, reinstating oil and gas leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and providing preferential treatment to mining and pipeline projects including the Alaska LNG project and the controversial Ambler Road.

Trump's day-one executive orders and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum's secretarial orders positioned drilling and mining interests as the favored users of America's public lands and threatened to scrap existing land protections and conservation measures across potentially hundreds of special places nationwide.

Under Trump, the BLM approved 63.7 percent more federal and Indian drilling permits compared to the same period under his predecessor, approving 6,027 new oil and gas permits — more Applications for Permits to Drill than in any other year over the past 15 years. The BLM held 22 lease sales within 2025 alone, putting over 21.3 million acres under lease for oil and gas development.

The Interior Department restarted coal leasing and eventually opened 13.1 million acres of public land to coal mining. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" mandates the federal government lease at least 4 million acres of known coal reserves and significantly cuts the royalty rate for coal extracted from federal lands.

The Trump administration announced its intent to repeal the 2001 Roadless Rule, opening up 58 million acres of national forest land to logging. The budget bill also requires the Forest Service and BLM to increase timber harvesting by 250 million and 20 million board feet respectively each year through 2034 — an approximately 80 percent increase — and requires dozens of long-term logging contracts locking in logging for at least 20 years.

An April 2025 analysis by the National Parks Conservation Association found more than 3,700 mining claims inside national parks or monuments, and more than 120,000 claims on public lands within 30 miles of a park or monument.

The Trump administration proposed shrinking protections for wetlands and streams such that around 80 percent of known wetlands in the contiguous U.S. would lose protections.

The Interior Department put in place new policies that could effectively ban renewable energy development on public lands, while prioritizing fossil fuel extraction.

Since January 2025, the National Park Service has lost nearly 25% of its workforce — over 4,000 staff — due to pressured resignations, early retirements, and an ongoing hiring freeze. This follows a 13% decline in park staff since 2011, even as visitation has risen 19%, topping 323 million visits in 2025.

The Trump administration's 2027 budget proposal would gut the National Park Service with a $736 million reduction (over 25%) to park operations, and cuts the annual NPS Construction budget to less than $50 million — leaving it with 72% less funding to address repairs compared to 2025. It also proposes cutting the EPA budget by $4.6 billion (52%).

These cuts have already led to fewer ranger-led programs, weakened resource protection, delayed maintenance, and diminished visitor experiences. At least 800 BLM staff have lost their jobs, leading to closed ranger stations, closed campgrounds in the Great Smoky Mountains, and closed access to public lakes and park toilets nationwide. Visitors' fees at Yosemite have gone uncollected because the park lacks the employees to staff the entrance gates.

Acting upon a March executive order, the Department of the Interior removed from national park sites undeniable historical and scientific truths it decided it didn't like. The administration also ordered that all "descriptions, depictions, or other content that inappropriately disparage Americans past or living" be removed from park sites — a directive critics saw as erasing difficult but accurate history.

The JCPOA dramatically reduced Iran's ability to produce weapons-grade fissile material by restricting uranium enrichment levels, capping stockpiles, and limiting plutonium pathways, while establishing an intrusive IAEA verification regime. In return, international sanctions were suspended and roughly $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets were effectively unlocked. Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018, calling it "the worst deal ever." The administration framed the JCPOA as "one-sided" because it did not curtail Iran's ballistic missile program, its regional support for proxies, or impose permanent curbs on nuclear capabilities — and argued that sanctions relief empowered Iran's malign regional activities.

After withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump reimposed sweeping sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil exports, banking system, and key industries, with the goal of bringing Iran's oil exports to zero. Following the U.S. withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions, Iran began to reduce its compliance with JCPOA limits and to accelerate its uranium enrichment program — a trend analysts say the withdrawal helped precipitate.

On returning to office, Trump immediately restored and expanded maximum pressure sanctions on Iran, pledging to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and imposing additional financial pressure targeting Iranian entities and their international partners.

After Iran and the U.S. failed to meet for a sixth round of talks, Israel began a major military operation against Iran, including airstrikes and reported covert action. Iran retaliated by launching waves of ballistic missiles against Israel.

Trump authorized "Operation Midnight Hammer," which he said obliterated Iran's nuclear facilities and significantly set back Tehran's nuclear ambitions. U.S. officials said the operation was "very narrowly tailored" to "destroy or severely degrade Iran's nuclear program." On June 23, Iran launched a retaliatory missile attack against Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where U.S. personnel are based, with no casualties reported. Hours later, Trump announced that Israel and Iran would end hostilities, bringing what he termed the "12 Day War" to a close.

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel began launching strikes against various targets in Iran — targeting its nuclear and ballistic missile program and regime infrastructure. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Iran appointed Khamenei's son as his successor and launched a series of counter-strikes against Israel, U.S. military bases in the region, and military and civilian locations in Arab states.

Among Iran's counter-actions was closing the Strait of Hormuz, a major global trade route for goods including fuel and gas. Trump had said that only Iran's "unconditional surrender" would be acceptable and threatened to attack Iranian energy infrastructure and bridges if a deal was not reached.

Talks resumed in early 2026 amid the conflict. Divisions between the two sides centered on the U.S. demand that Iran end all nuclear enrichment activity, the future of its ballistic missile program, and the timing of sanctions relief. Vice President JD Vance stated the U.S.'s "core goal" is for Iran to give an affirmative commitment that it will not seek a nuclear weapon or the tools that would enable it to quickly achieve one.

A ceasefire was announced in late 2025 following the Twelve-Day War. After the February 2026 escalation, Trump set multiple deadlines for a deal — March 21, then March 23, then April 7 — none of which produced an agreement.

One LSE analyst described Hormuz as the "economic clock of war": a short closure is an oil shock, but a long closure becomes an inflation and growth shock. The central question is not simply whether lost Gulf oil can be replaced, but how long the world can cushion a serious disruption before the political and macroeconomic costs become unsustainable.

The IMF warned that all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth — that a short conflict might send oil and gas prices soaring before markets adjust, while a prolonged one could keep energy expensive and strain countries that are still recovering from previous crises. The Vitol CEO estimated that one billion barrels of oil production will be lost because of the war. The situation remains fluid as of early May 2026, with a ceasefire announced in April but shipping traffic still far below pre-war levels, and negotiations ongoing.

Trump engaged in trade wars that raised consumer costs, tanked markets, and jeopardized economic partnerships with longtime allies. Two key U.S. allies, Japan and South Korea, even teamed up with China to jointly resist Trump's tariffs — a remarkable realignment. The lack of coordination and consultation with allies eroded trust, particularly as Trump threatened additional tariffs on nations implementing digital services taxes.

Trump treats NATO as little more than a protection racket, ignoring the collective identity that has long underpinned the alliance. His confrontational approach to NATO, the G7, and the EU has perturbed partners. Lacking confidence in America's collective defense guarantee under Article 5, Germany began talks with France and the UK about sharing nuclear weapons.

Within weeks of returning to the White House, Trump sparked divisions among NATO's founding members by threatening to annex Canada and acquire Greenland from Denmark.

Trump repeatedly criticized NATO and seemingly sided with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. According to analysts, the administration appeared to be blaming Ukraine for the conflict and giving Russia most of what it wants before negotiations even began.

Trump's determination to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal, incorporate Canada as the 51st state, and deploy the military to Mexico has alienated neighbors and allies — and also legitimizes similar territorial ambitions by Moscow and Beijing.

Foreign policy expert Stephen Walt warned that Trump appears to be "burning up the alliance" in ways likely to destroy relationships the U.S. could benefit from in the future, and that allies are being given incentives to form coalitions against the U.S. and reach out to other countries for help. According to former CIA analyst Melvin Goodman, Trump's policies have contributed to the historic strengthening of relations between Russia and China, as well as between Russia, China, India, and North Korea.

It's worth noting that the Trump administration and its supporters offer a different framing — arguing that post-WWII alliance structures are outdated, that NATO allies haven't been meeting their defense spending commitments, and that a more transactional approach better serves U.S. interests. The debate essentially comes down to whether alliances are valuable as long-term strategic assets or whether they've become arrangements where the U.S. bears disproportionate costs.

The UAE made a $2 billion stablecoin purchase in World Liberty Financial, described as essentially the president's personal crypto fund. Shortly after, Trump permitted the UAE to import a larger quantity of U.S.-produced AI chips than previously allowed.

Trump accepted a $400 million jet from the Qatari government, despite concerns it violated the Constitution's Foreign Emoluments Clause.

The U.S. Air Force signed a contract to buy interceptor drones from Powerus, a company backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, raising conflict-of-interest concerns.

Trump's sons took stakes in a construction firm that merged with a mining company days after it secured $1.6 billion in U.S. government backing for a Kazakhstan tungsten project.

Vietnam fast-tracked a $1.5 billion Trump Organization golf project, bypassing required legal steps, while negotiating with the Trump administration over threatened tariffs.

The Trump administration secretly gave a no-bid contract to a firm building Trump's White House ballroom for a nearby project, boosting costs from $3.3 million to over $17 million and bypassing competitive bidding.

The administration awarded more than $13 million in no-bid federal contracts to Event Strategies Inc., a firm staffed by Trump allies that helped organize the January 6 rally.

After a company gave $5 million to a Trump super PAC and met with him, the administration delayed a Medicare rule that would have cut payments for its expensive bandages.

Trump pardoned a nursing home executive convicted of tax crimes after his mother attended a $1 million-per-person fundraiser and raised millions for Trump.

The DOJ closed a probe into border czar Holman, who had been caught on tape allegedly taking a $50,000 bribe.

The Trump DOJ intervened to dismiss corruption charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams, which critics said gave the government political leverage over Adams on immigration enforcement.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford held millions in Republic Airways stock for more than seven months after taking office — despite pledging to divest within 90 days — while overseeing the airline industry.

A broker for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sought a multimillion-dollar investment in a BlackRock defense fund tied to companies like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman in the weeks before a U.S.-Israel attack on Iran.

Investors lobbying to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria pitched a Trump-branded golf resort while pursuing business deals with the Trump family, raising concerns about foreign policy being intertwined with private financial interests.

This is the most widely cited driver. Since April 2025, Trump imposed tariffs of 10–30% on nearly everything the U.S. imports, with the average tariff rate topping 18%. Two notable studies attributed elevated inflation directly to these tariffs, finding they added as much as 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points to the consumer price index and personal consumption expenditures price index, respectively. According to the Yale Budget Lab, the tariffs cost the average household $1,700 annually.

Specific price increases linked to tariffs include household essentials like cleaning supplies and toilet paper (up 5%), household furnishings (up 8%), and clothing (up 14%), compared with pre-tariff trends.

Despite the administration's promise to lower grocery prices on Day 1, food prices continued to reach record highs. In December 2025, food prices grew at their fastest monthly rate since fall 2022, with beef up 16% and coffee up nearly 20% between January and December 2025.

Trump's war on renewable energy and halting of competing energy projects reduced energy supply, causing electricity prices to surge and outpace general inflation, increasing 10% in the past year. Average natural gas wholesale spot prices increased 56% in 2025 from the 2024 annual average, despite Trump's promise to cut energy prices in half within his first 12 months.

Mass deportations could drive up prices by raising the cost of labor, particularly in immigrant-dependent industries. Sectors like housing, construction, agriculture, tourism, hospitality, and restaurants were hit particularly hard by an inability to find enough workers.

The 2025 Republican megabill continued individual and business tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act while enacting steep cuts to health care and nutrition programs. Critics argue that deficit-expanding tax cuts during a period of full employment add inflationary pressure.

Trump alarmed many economists by saying he would seek to have "a say" in the Fed's interest rate decisions. Economic research has found that central banks can properly manage inflation only if they're kept independent of political pressure, since raising rates can cause economic pain anathema to politicians seeking reelection.

In his first week in office, Trump rescinded Biden-era executive orders that had sought to protect access to abortion and contraception following the Dobbs decision.

The administration removed Biden-era guidance inviting state Medicaid waiver applications to support patients traveling for abortion care.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, makes historic cuts to Medicaid and weakens the Affordable Care Act, stripping millions of American women of health insurance coverage.

A provision in the law prohibits federal Medicaid payments to Planned Parenthood, disproportionately affecting adult women.

The Medicaid cuts threaten to eliminate coverage for between 2.1 and 6 million women of reproductive age.

The Trump administration eliminated the White House Gender Policy Council — which had been established to promote gender equity and combat systemic discrimination — in his first week in office.

The administration has undermined women's economic security, weakened civil rights protections, and eliminated diversity, equity, and inclusion programs.

Trump has implemented a significant portion of Project 2025 policies that critics say undermine women's economic security and eliminate DEI programs.

Broad tariff policies have raised alarms among economists that an economic slowdown could have serious consequences for women's wealth and long-term financial well-being.

An executive order was issued to enforce traditional gender roles and gender stereotypes, and a subsequent order sought to ban transgender athletes from participating in girls' and women's sports.

Within the first two months of Trump's return to the White House, his administration cleared the military of most of its top female-ranking officers. Following a series of high-profile departures, the U.S. military was left without a single woman in a four-star general or admiral leadership position.

Hegseth stated before taking office that generals and admirals "involved in any of the DEI woke s--t has got to go," and has since declared that diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives are "dead." His view that women should not hold combat roles was one of several controversies during his Senate confirmation hearing.

Hegseth also ended the Women, Peace, and Security Program inside the Department of Defense, calling it a "woke, divisive, social justice" initiative, even though it had originally been launched during Trump's first term.

The anti-DEI campaign has been described as targeting vital expertise and experience in government agencies, functioning as a "witch hunt" against anyone who embraced the idea that a more representative government is better equipped to serve the country.

On January 20, 2025, the administration canceled LGBTQ+ nondiscrimination policies, dissolved the White House Gender Policy Council, and redefined sex as strictly male or female as assigned at birth.

Executive Order 14168 declared that there are only two sexes, erasing legal recognition of gender identity and removing the "non-binary" option from civil rights data collection in schools.

The federal government removed questions about sexual orientation and gender identity from at least 360 government surveys, forms, federally funded research projects, and other data collections since Trump's 2025 inauguration.

In June 2025, Medicaid programs were told to stop asking applicants about sexual orientation or gender identity, undermining the ability to document health disparities in LGBTQ+ communities.

In April 2025, the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program was barred from supporting any gender-affirming services. The administration's FY 2026 budget proposed eliminating all federal funding for Part F of the program, which supports training, innovative programs, and culturally competent care.

The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) announced the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline would shut down LGBTQ+ youth services, with the administration claiming the program promotes "radical gender ideology" without parental consent.

HHS ordered teen pregnancy prevention programs to exclude LGBTQ+ content or lose federal funding, despite data showing higher pregnancy rates among LGBTQ+ teens.

NIH staffers issued the Bethesda Declaration, stating that the Trump administration had forced the NIH to politicize research by halting peer-reviewed grants on subjects including health disparities and gender identity.

On February 5, 2025, the President signed an Executive Order attempting to ban transgender girls and women from sports teams in K-12 schools, colleges, universities, and beyond, calling on the Department of Education to cut funding to non-complying schools.

Title IX regulations were amended back to those of the first Trump administration, rolling back Biden-era protections for LGBTQ+ students from discrimination.

The administration withheld nearly $7 billion in school funding as it investigated whether the funds supported LGBTQ-inclusive education.

The Trump administration sued the Minnesota Department of Education and the Minnesota State High School League, claiming policies that include transgender students in sports violate federal law, and threatened to withhold federal funding.

The Supreme Court sided with a Christian counselor who argued that a state ban on conversion therapy violated her First Amendment rights. The Trump administration supported the counselor's position, despite medical associations stating that efforts to change sexual orientation and gender identity are illegitimate, ineffective, and harmful — especially to minors.

The Trump administration pressured FIFA to bar transgender athletes from professional women's soccer, threatening to withhold government guarantees for the U.S.'s bid to host the Women's World Cup in 2031.

Trump signed an executive order citing plans to allow adoption and foster care agencies to discriminate against LGBTQ+ individuals and same-sex couples on religious grounds.

Trump did not acknowledge Pride Month. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt notably left out the LGBTQ+ community and never used the word "Pride" when speaking about it.

The largest case is the $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS and Treasury over leaked tax returns. Trump filed it on January 29, 2026, in Florida federal court. The claim stems from a 2019 leak of his tax returns by an IRS contractor, who is currently serving prison time. Legal experts have noted serious flaws — the statute of limitations may have expired, and the leak took place during Trump's first term, meaning he is effectively suing the government for actions that occurred when he was already in charge.

A major legal wrinkle has emerged: Florida District Judge Kathleen M. Williams questioned whether Trump can sue federal agencies that he oversees as president, saying it is unclear whether the parties are "sufficiently adverse to each other." She ordered both parties to explain whether a case and controversy exists by May 20, with a hearing set for May 27 in Miami. Meanwhile, Trump's lawyers are in active settlement discussions with the IRS, which would mean Trump's own administration paying him and his family from taxpayer funds.

Before becoming president a second time, Trump filed a claim against the Department of Justice, asking for $230 million to compensate him for the FBI investigation that found official and classified documents at Mar-a-Lago. He also included an earlier probe into his campaign's ties to Russia in this claim. The Russia investigation ended with no charges against Trump.

Trump now finds himself in the unusual position of being both plaintiff and, as president, overseer of the very department he is suing. Critics have pointed to a "glaring conflict of interest," with Attorney General Pam Bondi and her deputy Todd Blanche both having previously worked as Trump's personal attorneys.

Nearly 160 recruits have been sickened by a flu outbreak at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas

“Unfortunately, opting out of vitamin K for a newborn is akin to gambling with a child’s health, forgoing a straightforward and safe measure that effectively prevents severe complications.”